Could a leadership change undo Israel’s international isolation?

Israeli opposition leaders Naftali Bennett and Yair Lapid have united in an attempt to defeat Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and lead Israel’s next government. But while they have lots to criticise Netanyahu about, they have few qualms with his wars in Gaza and the rest of the region.

Those wars – in particular the genocide in Gaza, with more than 72,000 Palestinians killed – have made Israel more unpopular than ever internationally. But Bennett and Lapid, both former prime ministers, seem to be betting that they will be able to rehabilitate Israel’s global reputation if they get into power in elections that must take place before the end of October.

Launching the bid for government in April, Bennett, who is on Israel’s far-right politically, promised voters “an era of correction”, one where “professionals” who “think only of the good of Israel” would lead the country, rather than the division and isolation brought in by Netanyahu.

Internationally, Israel finds itself more isolated than ever before. A United Nations commission has determined that Israel has in fact committed genocide in Gaza. In Europe, numerous countries, such as Spain, Norway, and the Republic of Ireland, have been outspoken in their criticism of Israel, with pressure growing from within the European Union to suspend the bloc’s trade pact with Israel. Even within the population of its most stalwart ally, the United States, polls repeatedly point to both sides of the political divide growing increasingly angry with Israel’s multiple wars and its apparent influence over US politics.

And, of course, Netanyahu is wanted by the International Criminal Court for war crimes.

Isolation

“Israel is becoming more isolated,” Beth Oppenheim, a policy fellow with the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR), told Al Jazeera, pointing to polling in both the US and Europe. “For now, Trump and Netanyahu retain their public ‘bromance’, though cracks have emerged during the Iran and Lebanon wars, with the president issuing humiliating diktats to Israel on Truth Social.”

In Europe too, Israel has grown increasingly isolated, with only memories of the Holocaust and more transactional concerns on trade and arms deals standing in the way of a unified response, she added.

And yet, on the question of the wars in Gaza, Lebanon, and Iran, and the occupation of the Palestinians, Bennett and Lapid have few criticisms – and on occasion say that Netanyahu has not gone far enough.

Rather than addressing the tens of thousands of people that Israel has killed in Gaza since 2023 or the dire humanitarian situation forced upon the enclave’s survivors, last year Bennett framed the Palestinian group Hamas as being inherently embedded in Gaza’s remaining civilian infrastructure, thereby justifying Israel’s continued attacks.

“Essentially, they’re just relying on the assumption it’s not Israel that is hated around the world, but Netanyahu,” Alon Pinkas, a former Israeli ambassador and consul general in New York, told Al Jazeera, “which is fine, but that’s not what they’re going to be judged on. [They are going to be judged on] policy and so far, they’ve been competing with each other to be ever more bellicose.”

“At no point has either questioned the premise for Israel’s position on Lebanon, the Strait of Hormuz or even Iran,” Pinkas said. “Have they asked if the regime collapsed, why the people didn’t rise up as Netanyahu said, or offered a new policy towards Palestine? No. All they’ve done is criticise the ceasefire.”

The only friend that counts

While European leaders have been more openly critical of Israel than in the past, the one relationship that matters the most for Israel – with US leaders – is still holding. And Bennett and Lapid will prioritise maintaining that relationship.

“Bennett will want to get Trump on his side,” political pollster Mitchell Barak told Al Jazeera.

“Europe and many in the West will do what they do,” he said of the lack of Israeli public concern over European outrage. “But it’s Israel’s security and the relationship with the US that will have the most influence on the public. For now, Netanyahu has that, but we know that Trump can be unpredictable and, if Netanyahu looks like he’s slipping, Trump hates a loser.”

How entrenched Israel’s isolation in Europe might be was also open to question, analysts said.

Western governments have long profited from intelligence gathered by Israel, as well as profited from trade with the country, not least with its cutting-edge technology and spyware software. A change of personnel at the top, Oppenheim suggested, may be enough to signal a return to much of the international fold.

“While Western publics are increasingly hostile towards Israel, most governments are still hoping they don’t have to act. A more palatable new government would give leaders an opportunity to reset relations with Israel,” Oppenheim said.

“But a new Israeli government won’t change the fundamental trajectory. It could pursue a more pragmatic policy towards the Palestinian Authority, clamp down on settler terrorism, and may also be better placed to make diplomatic concessions,” she said. “There is, however, virtual consensus across all Jewish Israeli parties on rejecting Palestinian statehood while pursuing a more belligerent security doctrine. Netanyahu’s main challenger Naftali Bennett is a true ideological right-winger, while Gadi Eisenkot, Yair Lapid and other centrists [in Israeli terms] effectively compete to outdo one another with hawkish rhetoric.”

European countries, therefore, face a test. They can take the removal of Netanyahu as an opportunity to ease the pressure on Israel, much of which has been a political necessity brought on by public disgust at Israel’s actions. Or they can signal that Israel must change its ways, and not necessarily its leaders – in essence telling Israel that the shift in support for Israel is staying for the long term.

“A more polite Israeli leadership that makes the right noises may be just the ticket to allow Western governments a reset,” Oppenheim said. “But if the government’s policies don’t change, Israel will be unable to stave off a reckoning with the West in the long term.”