Iran war live: Tehran warns of ‘many more surprises’ if conflict resumes

The UN has cut global growth forecasts to 2.5 percent this year, compared with an estimated 3 percent last year, citing higher energy costs and weaker trade due to the US-Israel war on Iran.

In the latest World Economic Situation and Prospects Report, the global body warned that low-income families in developing countries bear the heaviest burden “as higher food and energy prices take up a larger share of their spending and rising costs outpace wages”.

Sharply declining aid flows and increased debt levels in low-income countries mean that those governments have less funding available to respond to the crisis, through “spending on health, education, and social protection”, it said.

The biggest economic shocks are being felt in Western Asia, it added, “driven not only by the energy shock but also by direct infrastructure damage and severe disruptions to oil production, trade, and tourism”.

Russia’s President Vladimir Putin has arrived in China, days after Trump left.

Atop the agenda is energy security. Putin is expected to raise the Power of Siberia 2, a gas pipeline connecting the two countries. The project was reportedly stalled due to price disagreements, as well as China’s reluctance to become over-reliant on any one country for its energy.

China already imports a large amount of oil and gas from Russia. However, Putin is hoping the war in Iran and the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz will change that.

The leaders are also expected to discuss regional security, the turmoil in the Middle East, and in Ukraine, with Xi updating Putin about what he discussed with Trump.

China sees Russia as an important strategic partner and counterweight to Washington. Like Beijing, Moscow would like to see a more multipolar world, one where the US has less power.

Russia also consistently backs China in many geopolitical areas, including Taiwan.

In the past, Xi referred to Putin as his very close and intimate friend, but that closeness has become a liability, damaging trust with Europe.

Xi must walk a diplomatic tightrope, on the one hand, keeping Russia close, while distancing himself from its invasion of Ukraine.

The optics here will also be very carefully managed because, in hosting Trump one week and Putin the next, Xi wants to show the world that China can speak to all sides.

The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has disrupted global fertiliser supplies, with about one-third of the world’s fertiliser normally passing through the waterway.

Gulf states export 41 percent of the world’s urea, as well as significant shares of ammonia, phosphate rock and sulphur – critical ingredients for farming. Nitrogen urea prices have surged by roughly 80 percent since February, reaching levels not seen since Russia’s war on Ukraine began in 2022.

The UN warns that if disruptions continue, up to 45 million more people could be pushed into hunger, bringing the global total facing food shortages to a record 363 million.

Watch below:

• Trump has threatened military action against Iran again, giving the country “two to three days” to make a deal and saying he had been an hour away from ordering an attack before postponing it.
• US Vice President JD Vance says Tehran and Washington have made a lot of progress in talks, and neither side wants to see a resumption of the military campaign.
• Iran’s Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi says Tehran has gained military knowledge from previous hostilities and warned that “a return to war will feature many more surprises”.
• The US Senate advances a War Powers Resolution to end the war on Iran unless Trump obtains congressional approval.
• Israeli forces kill nine people in an air raid on the southern Lebanon district of Nabatieh, as the death toll from Israel’s attacks since March 2 rises to 3,042.
• Israeli forces have intercepted another boat from the Gaza-bound Global Sumud Flotilla, the 61st so far, as international outrage grows over the abduction of hundreds of activists.

Hello, and welcome to our live coverage of the ceasefire in the US-Israel war on Iran, as well as Israel’s attacks on Lebanon.

Stay with us for the latest news and analysis from across the Middle East and beyond.

You can find our updates from Tuesday, May 19, here.