Ukraine updates: Kyiv expects Russian offensive in February

Ukrainian Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov, under pressure from a corruption scandal at his ministry, is set to be transferred to another government job, the head of President Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s parliamentary bloc has said.

David Arakhamia, chief of the Servant of the People bloc, said the defence ministry would be headed up by Kyrylo Budanov, head of the GUR military intelligence agency, according to Reuters.

He did not say when the move would be formalised. There was no immediate comment from Reznikov.

Fierce battles are raging in eastern Ukraine’s Donetsk region as Russia intensifies pressure before the first anniversary of its invasion of the country, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has said.

“Things are very difficult in Donetsk region – fierce battles,” Zelenskyy said in his nightly video address. “But however difficult it is and however much pressure there is, we must endure … We have no alternative to defending ourselves and winning.”

Russia, he said, was applying increased pressure to “make up for its defeats last year. We see that on various sectors of the front and also pressure in terms of information.”

Ukraine expects a possible major Russian offensive this month, but Kyiv has the reserves to hold back Moscow’s forces even though not all the West’s latest military supplies will have arrived in time, Ukraine’s defence minister has said.

At a news conference, Oleksii Reznikov said that Russia could launch the new attack in February for symbolic reasons around the first anniversary of its invasion, but that Moscow’s resources were not ready from a military point of view.

Germany’s prosecutor general has said that his office has collected “hundreds” of pieces of evidence showing war crimes by Russian forces in Ukraine, calling for an international effort to bring leaders to justice.

“At the moment we are focusing on mass killings in Bucha and attacks on Ukraine’s civil infrastructure,” prosecutor Peter Frank told the Welt am Sonntag newspaper.

He said most of the evidence came from interviews with Ukrainian refugees, and the goal was now to “prepare for a possible later court case – whether in Germany or with our foreign partners or an international court”, AFP reports.

Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said that the reluctance of Kyiv’s Western allies to send jets to his war-torn country would cost it “more lives.”

“I am sure that we will win this war; I am sure we will liberate all the occupied territories,” Reznikov told reporters in Kyiv, AFP reported. But without the delivery of Western jets, “it will cost us more lives”, he cautioned.

“We have to stop it right now,” Reznikov added.

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov will pay a two-day visit to Mali this week in a bid to strengthen defence and security ties, the West African country’s government has said.

Lavrov will arrive in Bamako on Monday. It is the first time a Russian foreign minister has officially visited the West African nation, and reflects Moscow’s focus on extending its reach on the continent while it is at loggerheads with Western powers over its invasion of Ukraine.

The continent has remained divided in United Nations votes over the invasion of Ukraine, with Mali abstaining on a vote in October to condemn Russia.

Helping to arm Ukraine so it can defend itself against Russia is the swiftest path to achieving peace, the United Kingdom’s Foreign Secretary James Cleverly has written in an article for a Maltese newspaper ahead of a visit on Tuesday to the island.

“Like all authoritarian rulers, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin responds only to strength in his opponents,” Cleverly wrote in the Times of Malta.

He added that he was delighted that Germany and the United States had joined Britain in agreeing to send tanks to Ukraine.

“Giving the Ukrainians the tools they need to finish the job is the swiftest – indeed the only – path to peace,” he wrote.

The war in Ukraine is expected to dominate the talks between the UK and Malta, a European Union member.

The island has sought to help Ukraine by enforcing EU sanctions and providing humanitarian assistance including medicines and power generators. A small number of Ukrainian soldiers are also being treated in Maltese hospitals.

Ukraine’s defence chief says an audit is under way after corruption scandals, but he declined to confirm reports that he could soon be forced to resign.

“We have started an internal audit” of all procurement contracts, Oleksii Reznikov told reporters, but declined to say if he would stay on as defence minister.

“It is one person – the commander-in-chief, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy – who decides whether I will be defence minister or not,” he said.

His comment came after Ukrainian media, citing government and military sources, reported that Reznikov was going to be replaced in the near future.

“My specialisation as a lawyer allows me to think optimistically that I will definitely find an interesting project for myself that will allow us not only to win the war, but also to punish the military and political leadership of the Russian Federation later,” Reznikov said.

Ukraine has shipped 5.5 million tonnes of grain in January this year, which is 1.3 million tonnes less compared to December, the country’s ministry of agriculture has said in a statement.

The downward trend is due to Russian inspectors’ obstruction of outbound vessels, the ministry said.

“Thus, in the first month of the new year, deliveries of absolutely all agricultural crops decreased,” read the statement.

The export of corn decreased by 700,000 metric tonnes, and wheat by 250,000 metric tonnes.

The neighbouring, warring countries are among the world’s biggest exporters of food, but Russia’s invasion nearly a year ago led to a de facto blockade of the Black Sea, resulting in Ukraine’s exports dropping to a sixth of their prewar level.

The standoff, which led to a global food crisis, was eased in July after Russian and Ukrainian officials signed a deal to resume grain exports.

Russia’s defence ministry says that Ukraine plans to carry a false flag operation in the near future to accuse Moscow of committing war crimes.

For this purpose, the ministry said in a message on social media citing “several independent sources”, Kyiv plans to blow up three medical buildings and “accuse Russia of an allegedly ‘deliberate attack’ on civilian objects”.

“The bombing of the medical institutions will be presented as another ‘atrocity’ of Russian troops, requiring a response from the world community and accelerating the supply of long-range missiles to Kyiv [to be used] for strikes on Russian territory,” the defence ministry said.

The ministry did not provide evidence for the claims.

Ukraine expects a possible Russian offensive this month, but Kyiv has the reserves to hold back Moscow’s forces even though not all the West’s latest military supplies will have arrived in time, Ukraine’s Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said.

Reznikov told reporters that Russia could launch the new attack in February for symbolic reasons around the first anniversary of its invasion, but that Moscow’s resources were not ready from a military point of view.

Reznikov said the offensive would likely be launched in the east – where Russia is trying to capture all of the heavily industrialised Donbas region – or the south, where it wants to widen its land corridor to the occupied peninsula of Crimea.

He estimated that Russia had 12,000 troops in Belarusian military bases, a number that would not be enough to launch a significant attack from Belarus into Ukraine’s north, reopening a new front.

Ukraine will not use longer-range weapons pledged by the United States to hit Russian territory and will only target Russian units in occupied Ukrainian territory, Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov has said.

“We always tell our partners officially that we will not use weapons supplied by foreign partners to fire on Russian territory. We only fire on Russian units on temporarily occupied Ukrainian territory,” Reznikov told reporters at a news conference.

His comment came after the US confirmed that a new rocket that would double Ukraine’s strike range was included in a more than $2bn US military aid package to help Kyiv fight back Russian forces.

While the US rebuffed Kyiv’s request for a 300-km (186-mile) range missile, it agreed to provide the Ground-Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), which has a range of 150km (93 miles).

The GLSDB’s range could allow Ukraine to hit targets previously out of its reach and help it continue pressing its counterattacks by disrupting Russia further behind its lines.

Price caps on Russian oil likely hit Moscow’s revenues from oil and gas exports in January by nearly 30 percent, or about $8bn, compared to the same period a year ago, the International Energy Agency’s chief Fatih Birol has said.

Group of Seven (G7) nations, the European Commission and Australia this week approved a $100 per barrel price cap on diesel and a $45 per barrel cap on discounted products such as fuel oil starting from February 5.

This followed a similar measure they implemented in December barring Western-supplied maritime insurance, finance and brokering for seaborne Russian crude unless it was sold below a $60 per barrel price cap.

Members of the Ukrainian air force have left for training on the SAMP/T-MAMBA air defence system, the Kyiv Independent reports, citing air force commander General Mykola Oleshchuk.

The coaching is expected to end in spring, it added.

⚡️Air Force: Ukrainian service members leave for training on French-Italian SAMP-T Mamba air defense system.

Training on the medium-range air defense systems is expected to be completed in spring, Ukrainian Air Force commander Mykola Oleshchuk said on Feb. 5.

— The Kyiv Independent (@KyivIndependent) February 5, 2023

The news comes after France and Italy finalised technical talks for joint delivery of the air defence system aimed at boosting Ukraine’s airpower against Russian drones, missiles and plane attacks.

The system can track dozens of targets and intercept 10 at once. It is the only European-made system that can intercept ballistic missiles.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused thousands of deaths and destroyed entire cities.

Western countries have answered Kyiv’s pleas for military aid.

Does this mean the conflict has become an international one?

And what are the risks of escalation to a wider war?

Power has been partially restored in Ukraine’s southern city of Odeda after a fire at a damaged electrical substation had left nearly 500,000 people without electricity.

The government said it will appeal to Turkey to restore power to those still affected.

The structure was damaged by repeated Russian strikes.

Citing government and military sources, Ukrainian media outlet Ukrainska Pravda reports that Defence Minister Oleksii Reznikov “may leave his post” next week to be likely replaced by the head of Ukraine’s military intelligence, Kyrylo Budanov.

“As an option, it is considered that Reznikov will become the new Minister of Justice,” read the report, adding that there “was no doubt” that the minister should remain part of the government.

Ukrainian media The Kyiv Independent also cited a government source as saying that Reznikov was likely to be replaced in the very near future.

Speaking to the Ukrainska Pravda, Reznikov said he did not hold any talks about his resignation.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy has revoked the citizenship of several former influential politicians in the latest step to “cleanse” Ukraine of pro-Russian influences.

State media said they included several top politicians from the office of Viktor Yanukovych, Ukraine’s pro-Russian former president, who was removed from office in 2014.

Russian President Vladimir Putin “has not made any threats against me or Germany” in their telephone conversations, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz said in an interview with the newspaper Bild am Sonntag.

The last phone call between the two leaders was at the start of December.

Scholz also said he made it clear to Putin that they had very different views of the war in Ukraine.

“I make it very clear to Putin that Russia has sole responsibility for the war,” Scholz said. “Russia has invaded its neighbour for no reason, in order to take parts of Ukraine or the whole country under its control.”

Because it was Germany’s view that Russia’s actions violated Europe’s peace framework, it was providing Ukraine with financial, humanitarian and military help, he said.

There is an agreement with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that weapons supplied by the West must only be used on Ukrainian and not on Russian territory, he added.

Two Russian missiles targeted the centre of Kharkiv, hitting a residential building and a university’s building, a local official says.

“A residential building in the city centre was hit. A fire broke out,” Kharkiv governor Oleh Synehubov said on his Telegram channel.

In a later message, he added that four people in total were being treated.

Al Jazeera was not able to independently verify these reports.